Game theory is extremely useful for analyzing all kinds of cooperative and non-cooperative behavior ... it is also useful for explaining the growth of groups into institutions and political parties that control government and history.
Social networks and social commerce are still at the MOST early form of organizational evolution ... basically there are few forms that have advanced past comparison-based groups, forums and discussions ... competition is the next step; auction is a competitive game that is well-established but there are plenty of ways to improve auction ... cooperation is the next step; early forms of cooperative networks are fundraising organizations like Kiva or Kickstarter -- these are still relatively expensive networks to maintain and build ... moving beyond cooperation takes us to collaboration; it's a difficult to achieve much in the way of collaborative networks -- open source collaboration is probably the most advanced with Apache Software Foundation and GitHub ... adhoc groups coalescing into rudimentary institutions ... much like traders meeting on a street corner in Manhattan and then Wall Street and then ... become the central financial trading hub in the world.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
More cowbell ... the world has shifted in to a digital realm ... this creates brand new social commerce opportunities in commercial real estate
A major secular shift is underway; it's not cyclical.
If you have not already shifted your business to have more of a digital personality, occupying digital real estate ... you really need to investigate a shift. You do it soon. Realize that is not sufficient to a geek who handles your website -- if you want to be in business, you need to fundamentally shift your worldview to exist in a world of data and information technology. You need to think strategically in this realm OR you can live in the world of buggy whips and stone tools. You cannot and should not be at the bleeding edge of technology ... but a network-based information-intensive data-driven existence is not bleeding edge thinking ... it is current thinking that is at least five years old [after blogs were commonplace and cloud-based web services started to gain their foothold] maybe ten [after the dot com boom, when the web-based apps had become commonplace] or twenty five years old [after PCs were common and networked client-server software began to control the workplace and factory floor].
So the world has shifted ... a networked world is one that minimizes the importance of an automobile ... it's no longer typically necessary to drive around with an unfolded map or road atlas and ask directions in order to find a location, i.e. location, location, location is less of a truism in real estate that it once was -- although convenience and proximity will always matter. It's also no longer typically a great idea to restrict your employees or contractors to the subset of the worldwide population that can drive in to work ... telecomputing, teleconferences and webinars are commonplace -- most moderately-adept people can navigate in the world of email, Facebook/Twitter/LinkedIn, webcams and cloud-based services ... if you are uncomfortable in this realm, you need to get moving ... or contemplate retirement.
The networked world has revolutionized retail ... increasingly [even older] consumers now search for and scrutinize purchases via web and mobile [including iPad] interfaces; they discuss those purchases with their friends and associates; they decide what they want and either have it delivered or dash into an outlet to pick it up ... so the commercial real estate vacancy rate is now at the highest rate in history and it has continued to increase even as the economy stabilized or moderately improves. In all likelihood, we probably have two square feet of commercial real estate space for every one square foot that we really need ... although retail outlets might occupy 85% ~ 90% of the commercial real estate in various cities, they occupy more than they want because of past decision -- if they had their druthers, they would only occupy [and pay to operate/maintain] half of the space they currently occupy. Most large retailers, like Walmart and BestBuy, are now investigating radically smaller footprints for new locations -- the existing smaller retailers that owned and managed by business owners who are now 45-70 years old will not be occupied at all by the next generation of retailers who are now 20-45.
The majority of the inventory of commercial real estate is not going to be used for the purpose it was intended -- the real estate will need to be re-purposed ... and that radical shift creates an enormous opportunity for social commerce and event-driven social marketing. It is a brave and exciting new world for the next generation of auctioneers ... auctioneering is not necessarily about bid-calling [although entertainment and leadership of the audience is terribly important] as much as it is about creative development, planning, organization, coordination, execution and leadership of social commerce.
If you have not already shifted your business to have more of a digital personality, occupying digital real estate ... you really need to investigate a shift. You do it soon. Realize that is not sufficient to a geek who handles your website -- if you want to be in business, you need to fundamentally shift your worldview to exist in a world of data and information technology. You need to think strategically in this realm OR you can live in the world of buggy whips and stone tools. You cannot and should not be at the bleeding edge of technology ... but a network-based information-intensive data-driven existence is not bleeding edge thinking ... it is current thinking that is at least five years old [after blogs were commonplace and cloud-based web services started to gain their foothold] maybe ten [after the dot com boom, when the web-based apps had become commonplace] or twenty five years old [after PCs were common and networked client-server software began to control the workplace and factory floor].
So the world has shifted ... a networked world is one that minimizes the importance of an automobile ... it's no longer typically necessary to drive around with an unfolded map or road atlas and ask directions in order to find a location, i.e. location, location, location is less of a truism in real estate that it once was -- although convenience and proximity will always matter. It's also no longer typically a great idea to restrict your employees or contractors to the subset of the worldwide population that can drive in to work ... telecomputing, teleconferences and webinars are commonplace -- most moderately-adept people can navigate in the world of email, Facebook/Twitter/LinkedIn, webcams and cloud-based services ... if you are uncomfortable in this realm, you need to get moving ... or contemplate retirement.
The networked world has revolutionized retail ... increasingly [even older] consumers now search for and scrutinize purchases via web and mobile [including iPad] interfaces; they discuss those purchases with their friends and associates; they decide what they want and either have it delivered or dash into an outlet to pick it up ... so the commercial real estate vacancy rate is now at the highest rate in history and it has continued to increase even as the economy stabilized or moderately improves. In all likelihood, we probably have two square feet of commercial real estate space for every one square foot that we really need ... although retail outlets might occupy 85% ~ 90% of the commercial real estate in various cities, they occupy more than they want because of past decision -- if they had their druthers, they would only occupy [and pay to operate/maintain] half of the space they currently occupy. Most large retailers, like Walmart and BestBuy, are now investigating radically smaller footprints for new locations -- the existing smaller retailers that owned and managed by business owners who are now 45-70 years old will not be occupied at all by the next generation of retailers who are now 20-45.
The majority of the inventory of commercial real estate is not going to be used for the purpose it was intended -- the real estate will need to be re-purposed ... and that radical shift creates an enormous opportunity for social commerce and event-driven social marketing. It is a brave and exciting new world for the next generation of auctioneers ... auctioneering is not necessarily about bid-calling [although entertainment and leadership of the audience is terribly important] as much as it is about creative development, planning, organization, coordination, execution and leadership of social commerce.
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