Toward a Theory of Social Commerce

The world of marketing has changed more in the last five years than it has in the previous 100 years.  The change boils down to increasing importance of REPUTATION, more intelligent recommendation engines, more responsive feedback in relationships, increased collaboration with less travel and waste, radically more frugal R&D and product launch... the big driver in all of this is that customer is no longer a passive couch-potato, no longer patiently waiting for products to come out.  Prosumers and early adopters matter more.  The conversations matter more because they happens online, they persist and are searchable AND lurkers who don't even know about the conversation will [at some point in the future, search for information and] pay attention.  Markets truly are a conversation; everyone listens.  As big as it is already, social commerce is going to be an even much bigger thing ... social commerce doesn't necessarily mean that people will socialize and then buy more junk [although some will still make foolish, herd-driven purchases]; mostly, it means that people and businesses will become MORE conscientious about their purchases, what their purchases say about them, their history of purchases and how they take care of those purchases.

More Mindful Consumption

Some might worry that it might kick off a wave of stupid consumer "joke-purchases" like a bunch of college drunks on buying spree ... of course, foolish purchases will always happen, but in general, product design will largely become more sustainable -- with reusability, upgradability and recyclability being ubiquitous, expected, taken for granted ... disposable junk that's not intended to last past warranty will stick out like shoddy, low-quality merchandise that we used to tolerate, but now find unacceptable  ... commerce will HAVE to be more mindful because more minds are involved, reputations are involved ... how you select and take care of your stuff will matter more; it will be typical for people to buy things and re-sell them. (see "Re-selling, Recommending, Refurbishing").

Finding treasures, curating and creating content through interaction

The future will be more radically interactive.  The availability and affordability of cloud-based information systems and radically-scalable computing power to propel increasing competition in search engines, the continuing quest for better recommendation engines and even ways to harness computing power create independent film or music. These technologies will continue to improve as more developers interact with other develops to newer, braver technologies that rely upon harnessing the power of social community interactions, systems of smart sensors and Big Data.   People who think about the internet as an extension of their life [rather than some place to post content to] such generation Z are already interested in "curating" purchases that can be prospected, found, tried, shared, discussed, debated ... the result is that hype without value will not really work any more when even better search and recommendation engines already provide the opportunities for more people to discover information about a product or company's reputation with a few seconds of "online prospecting."

Sharing, Borrowing, Leasing, Renting

If people have great stuff (e.g. a neighbor with a Bobcat, good tools), there will be people who want to borrow or rent it.  This will become acceptable IF reputations for being a mindful, careful user are tracked ... in other words, people will purchase assets (e.g. tools, equipment) that they may consider lending to a small circle of  borrowers or leasors who can treat those assets with respect.

Asset Optimization, Re-Selling, Refurbishing

Design for sustainability, durability and reuse will matter more.  How you take care of your stuff will matter ... this will be especially true for businesses and contractors that use tools.   People who buy equipment will expect to see that it has been cared for, i.e. they will want to look a the data from the machine's condition monitoring system.  The condition monitoring and tracking systems will also make it possible for companies to lease or rent equipment and charge based upon the time AND conditions of usage [in the same way that cloud service providers like Amazon AWS charge for data storage, data transfer and computation cycles].   People will continue buy high quality durable things that can be repaired/refurbished/upgraded ... use them and then sell them eBay-style -- this activity will not decline -- in fact, it will increase ... good stuff that can be resold will earn value for its brand; the junk that must be recycled, given to GoodWill or [worse] disposed of will be treated as junk when it is new ... re-gifting [of valuable items] will out in the open, but in a world of increased transparency everything will be just a bit more honest.  Transparency means that there is a cost for not behaving as you know you should behave.

Add Value Through Ownership

Celebrities and knowledgeable collectors [of art, antiques and similar items] will add value to merchandise through their ownership ... like Roy Roger's old boots! sold in an auction of the celebrity's "toys" -- as this example illustrates, this has always been possible for major celebrities (e.g. an aging football player who sells his jerseys or Heisman Trophy to raise cash), now it be possible for minor celebrities, like amateur athletes (e.g. who might sell shoes, jerseys, autographed balls from special games), semi-professional musicians (e.g. autographed guitars from big shows), other artists and authors (e.g. Etsy-esque, craftsy items, notes/sketches/papers)